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Risk Prediction
Vaping can help smokers stop using cigarettes by giving them the nicotine they would get from smoking, however there may be still harmful chemicals in e-liquid vapour. The risk prediction tool enables consumers to identify products which are less harmful than others. At Vape Aware, one of our primary goals is for people to be able to make safe choices by predicting the risk of each vape tested.
What is the Risk Prediction Tool?
RPT Explained
The risk prediction tool enables consumers to identify products which are less harmful than others. At Vape Aware, one of our primary goals is for people to be able to make safe choices by predicting the risk of each vape tested.
Using cigarettes and other tobacco products can cause many health issues, such as cancer, cardiovascular disease, respiratory illness, reproductive problems and addiction. We use a model called the Risk Prediction Tool, which estimates the number of people out of 100,000 who will develop cancer as a result of using a particular product.
How RPT Works
At Vape Aware, we test for compounds that are known or suspected to cause cancer. We then calculate the total quantities of these compounds that will be used over the average day, if a user vapes enough to get the same amount of nicotine as a 20-a-day smoker.
We then can work out the likely number of people out of 100,000 who will develop cancer solely from using that product using the Inhalation Unit Risk (IUR) of each compound. This is a measure of the relative potency of each compound, which allows us to compare the relative risks of each vape. In the US, the average vape has an ELCR score of 118 people who develop cancer out of 100,000. Comparatively standard cigarettes has an ELCR score of 10,000 people who develop cancer out of 100,000. The Vape Aware Risk Prediction Tool can only predict cases of cancer, however other risks to using vapes may exist outside of this.
This diagram illustrates the estimated cancer risk per 2,268 people: 3 icons represent the risk associated with vaping, 227 icons represent the significantly higher risk from smoking cigarettes, and the remaining icons indicate individuals with no excess cancer risk from either product
The Relative Risk Prediction Tool
The Prediction Tool consider the most common and highest risk constituents found in vape products and their aerosols. The model will assume that:
- Vape use equivalent to 20-40 cigarettes a day (40mg nicotine) or 2mL for a 20mg/mL vape product which is standard in the UK.
- Constant use from 18-70 years old.
Taking into consideration the the Inhalation Unit Risk (IRU) of chemicals, the model will provide the cancer risk prediction for that particular product on the database.
The Relative Risk Prediction Tool
The Prediction Tool consider the most common and highest risk constituents found in vape products and their aerosols. The model will assume that:
- Vape use equivalent to 20-40 cigarettes a day (40mg nicotine) or 2mL for a 20mg/mL vape product which is standard in the UK.
- Constant use from 18-70 years old.
Taking into consideration the the Inhalation Unit Risk (IRU) of chemicals, the model will provide the cancer risk prediction for that particular product on the database.
FAQ
How does the Expected Lifetime Cancer Risk work?
The ELCR considers the risk of exposure to known or potentially cancer causing chemicals based on their concentration in e-liquid or aerosol from vape products. It is intended as an estimate only, to allow for comparison of relative risk. This gives consumers an objective way to compare the relative safety, with respect to cancer, of various vape products.
What chemicals are considered as part of ELCR?
The Vape Aware Relative Risk Predictor considers the most common and highest risk constituents found in vape products and their aerosols. These are chemicals that have been classified as either causing cancer or could possibly cause cancer. Chemicals classed as Group 1-3 based on the World Health Organisation International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) include: acetaldehyde, chromium, crotonaldehyde, formaldehyde, glycidol, lead, nickel, NNN, NNK.
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